Anticipated Rise in Unemployment in 2024 Despite Robust US Jobs Report
The US jobs report for December 2023 revealed a marginally stronger increase in employment than anticipated. The data indicates that 216,000 jobs were added with the unemployment rate remaining consistent at 3.7 percent. However, last year saw job growth rise by only 2.7 million, a two-year low. Moreover, companies announced 721,677 job cuts in 2023, almost twice the amount announced the previous year.
Various companies, including tech giants such as Meta and Amazon, reported considerable cuts. Stellantis, towards the year-end, declared layoffs amounting to approximately 3,500 at plants manufacturing Jeep vehicles in Detroit and Toledo. UPS also declared significant layoffs amongst its part-time warehouse workforce in several states.
Predictions of a possible recession continue as The Conference Board Leading Economic Index marks a decrease for the 20th consecutive month. The chief economist at Nationwide, Kathy Bostjancic, anticipates a moderate recession, suggesting a rise in the unemployment rate to around 5 percent by the end of 2024.
Despite this, the Biden administration praised the increase in job numbers. Labor Secretary Julie Su credited President Biden’s vision of supporting workers for this growth. Critics, however, accuse the administration of pushing up interest rates to curb wage increases below inflation rates to make the working class bear the burden of capitalist crisis.
Union leaders have also faced criticisms for supposed complicity in undermining workers’ struggles to press down wages and conserve corporate profits. Shawn Fain, president of United Auto Workers, was specifically criticized for negotiating buyouts with car manufacturers Ford, Stellantis, and General Motors, leading to substantial job cuts.
Forecasts spotlight a rise in unemployment numbers and a fall in labor force participation rate. Despite this, there have been incremental wage increases like the $3 per hour pay rise for city bus drivers in Detroit. However, these improvements fail to significantly surpass the official inflation rate of 3.1 percent for 2023. Consequently, expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates might be delayed, given the unexpected rise in wages.
These developments occur amid rising interest rates’ impact on workers’ finances, increasing mortgage and credit card payments, and the burden of student loan debt. The Biden administration, inspite of championing itself as pro-worker , faces criticism for presiding over a continued decline in real wages, thereby enhancing social inequality.