Anticipated Increase in Unemployment in 2024 Despite Robust Job Reports
The December 2023 US jobs report revealed a slight increase in hiring compared to expectations. As per the report, the US economy added 216,000 jobs in December, leaving the unemployment rate at a steady 3.7 percent. This surpassed economists’ anticipations.
While these figures were initially positive, employment growth for the year was a mere 2.7 million, marking a two-year low. Furthermore, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas found that companies announced approximately 721,677 job cuts in 2023. This number was nearly double the layoffs reported the previous year.
Notably, tech firms such as Meta, Amazon, and Stellantis disclosed large numbers of job cuts. Additionally, UPS revealed hundreds of layoffs, significantly affecting part-time warehouse workers in several states, and Xerox divulged plans to reduce its workforce by 15 percent.
This surge in job cuts comes as the Conference Board Leading Economic Index continues to hint at an impending recession. According to Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, there are emerging signs that the sensitivity sectors of the economy are dialing back on employee recruitment. She projected moderate job losses by mid-2024 and predicted a rise in the unemployment rate to around 5% later in the same year.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration upheld the better job numbers. Labor Secretary Julie Su argued that the stable economic growth of 2023 was an outcome of President Biden’s vision. She deflected criticism regarding the administration’s policy to raise interest rates to increase unemployment as an approach to quell the militancy of the working class.
However, reports of discontent from workers challenge the administration’s assertions. The imposition of tactics that compromise workers’ interests - such as calling off strikes, selling out deals, and negotiating buyouts - intervenes in the overall goal of maintaining and enhancing workers’ living standards.
In addition to internal labor issues, the official unemployment and wage figures fail to account for rising interest rates’ impact on worker households. Higher rates lead to increased mortgage and credit card payments and rising student loan debt interest rates.
Consequently, while the Biden administration may advocate pro-worker actions, the current economic outcomes reflect a continued decline in real wage growth and increases in socioeconomic disparity.