Dalal Street Outlook: Key Factors this Week - From US Unemployment Figures to India's Auto Sales and Impact on Sensex, Nifty
The Indian equity benchmarks ended the last week of Calendar Year 2023 with a significant gain. Positive global cues contributed to a growth of over one and a half percentage points. This week will be data heavy, with investors keeping an eye on key events such as the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, auto sales data, India’s foreign exchange reserves, EIA crude oil stocks, FOMC minutes, and the US unemployment rate.
The first week of 2024 is expected to kick off with the release of monthly auto sales data followed by S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for December on January 3. The S&P Global India Manufacturing PMI rose to 56.0 in November 2023 from an 8-month low of 55.5 in October. S&P Global Services PMI for December, which will be released on January 5, 2024, will be another focus point.
Further data of interest are from US markets, with traders keeping an eye on the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI on January 2, ISM Manufacturing PMI and Redbook on January 3, FOMC Minutes, API Crude Oil Stock, Initial Jobless Claims, EIA Crude Oil Stocks on January 4, and Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Factory Orders, on January 5.
According to Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities, Asian stocks ended their two-year losing streak on the final trading day of the year. He attributed this change to buoyed investor expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates next year. Jasani also stated that the upward momentum is still strong, and the Nifty could rise towards 21,801 and later 21,920 with strong support levels at 21,675 and 21,505.
Meanwhile, Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, mentioned that the Bank Nifty slipped lower. His analysis indicates that as long as the index stays below 48300, the trend could favor bears. However, a decisive move above 48300 could drive the index towards 48800-49000.
In summary, incoming data in the new year is expected to have significant influence on the markets, with prospects of both gains and obstacles on the horizon.