Increase in Unemployment as Wage Growth Decelerates Once More
The UK’s unemployment rate has seen an increase according to recent official figures, while growth in pay seems to slow. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the rate of unemployment was at 4.3% during the months of July to September, up from 4% in the previous quarter. The ONS however has warned against placing too much emphasis on the latest job data due to potential issues with its data collection method. The rate at which wages grow has slowed, however, it is rising faster than inflation. Excluding bonuses, annual pay grew at a rate of 4.8% between July and September which is the lowest in more than two years.
The number of job vacancies also fell, continuing a trend over two years. Total vacancies still remain slightly above pre-pandemic levels, suggesting a continued easing of the labour market. However, the reliability of the data, produced by the ONS’s Labour Force Survey, is under scrutiny due to a smaller number of respondents over the past year. This data is used by the Bank of England when making decisions on interest rates, which were recently cut for the second time this year, as inflation is below their 2% target at 1.7%.
Higher costs have led some businesses to halt hiring ahead of the Budget, which combined with the increase in National Insurance contributions (NICs) and the rise in the minimum wage from April, has caused concerns that businesses might have to cut back on hiring or increase prices. Economists also warn that the upcoming rise in employer’s NICs might impact private sector wages.
Recently, a survey by the Recruitment and Employment Confederation and KPMG showed a decrease in vacancies for the 12th consecutive month, suggesting a decrease in demand for workers. Economists however, do not believe this trend will influence the Bank to opt for another rate cut in December. Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall emphasized that more needs to be done to improve living standards and announced that from April, three million low-paid workers would benefit from an increase in the minimum wage, known officially as the National Living Wage.
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