7 Indications of a Recession Effect in the Labor Market Despite Low Unemployment Rates
The US labor market is showing signs of softening despite a current unemployment rate of 3.7%. This is just marginally above a 50-year low rate of 3.4% reached in April 2023. Statistical evidence indicative of this softening includes negative revisions of job figures in the past 12 months, job gains largely in non-cyclical sectors, rising unemployment rates, decreasing job openings, and a decline in new hires and job resignations. Some analysts project an economic slowdown to occur soon, possibly as early as 2024. Despite these potential red flags, there continues to be strong performance in the stock market, which may be masking certain areas of weakness in the labor market.