This article discusses the recent inflation-adjusting monetary tightening and its impact on the labor market. September quarter unemployment figures suggest that a 75-basis-point rate cut by the Reserve Bank later this month is unlikely. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.8% at the time, showing a marked growth from 3.2% in the September 2022 quarter. These figures, while mixed, are generally viewed as better-than-expected. The Reserve Bank had forecast the rate to land at 5%, highlighting the degree to which these figures fell short of that expectation. The decline in labor force participation, especially among the youth group (15-24 years old) is accounted as one of the main reasons for the increase in unemployment. Wage growth has also slowed down in the year to September 30, with all salary and wage rates, including overtime, increasing by only 3.8% compared with a 4.3% increase in the year to the June 2024 quarter.

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