The job market has been navigating through tough waters, and some strategists and economists believe it’s on the brink of stall speed. Stall speed refers to a slowdown in job creation that could rapidly trigger an economic downturn. Peter Berezin, the Chief Global Strategist at BCA Research defines it as a weakening job market that leads to consumers cutting down on expenditure, and a consequent increase in layoffs. He predicts a potential increase in US unemployment rate up to 6%, which may remain high for about a year before rate cuts by the Federal Reserve influence hiring.

Economists at JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs also subscribe to the possibility of the labor market moving into stall speed while Fed Governor Chris Waller has raised similar concerns. The recent job data in 2025 shows a slowdown in hiring, though the unemployment remains at record lows. July added only 73,000 jobs while job gains for May and June were revised downward. Berezin expects more negative revisions in the August jobs report. An increasing number of economists are predicting a potential recession, with Barclays estimating a 50% chance by mid-2027.

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